72% of Economists Expect a Recession By Middle of Next Year

Most economists think the U.S. will be in a recession by the middle of next year, a survey released Monday showed.

The National Association of Business Economists found that 72 percent of economists polled expect a recession will have begun by the middle of next year—if not earlier.

Nineteen percent say that the U.S. is already in a recession, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.  Nine percent of economists say the recession will start in the third quarter and another 16 percent say it will begin in the fourth quarter. That’s forty-four percent saying the U.S. will enter a recession this year.

Another 28 percent say the U.S. economy will be in a recession in the first half of next year, split between 22 percent who see the recession hitting in the first quarter and six percent saying it will hit in the second quarter.

Twenty percent say the U.S. will not be a recession until the second half of 2023 or later.

Seventy-three percent those surveyed said they are  “not very confident” or “not at all confident” that the Federal will be able to bring inflation down to its two percent goal within the next two years without triggering a recession. That includes a majority, 51 percent, who said they are not at all confident the Fed can bring down inflation without a recession.
Just three percent of economists say they are “very confident” that the Fed can bring down inflation without a recession. Fourteen percent are somewhat confident and 10 percent are confident.

Despite this, the economists surveyed have a much better opinion of the stance of monetary policy than they did earlier this year. In March, a record 77 percent viewed monetary policy as too stimulative. Now, forty-four percent say the policy is too stimulative and 46 percent view monetary policy as “just right.”

The results come from the NABE’s semiannual survey of its members, taken between August 1 and August 9. There were 198 respondents.